Bulkley Valley Research Centre

A Multi-Scale Trans-Disciplinary Vulnerability Assessment

Project Reference Number: 2009-12

Project Status: Active

Led by: Don Morgan, Research Branch, Ministry of Forests and Range, Smithers

Funded by: Future Forest Ecosystems Scientific Council

Adaptation to climate change requires revision of the current forest management framework to reflect new science on climate-related impacts, but also requires structural changes to the framework. Revisions include re-evaluation of existing practice in light of the potential impacts of climate change and contemplation of new objectives such as sequestering carbon and promoting resilience. Structural changes include a more sophisticated approach to management planning that adequately considers risk and uncertainty. The approach must be long term, able to incorporate and respond to new information as the impacts of climate change become apparent to science, and it must serve the multiple parties that participate in management at different scales. In particular, national interests in carbon sequestration and the fate of forest dependent communities should be considered more than they are currently.

This project identifies climate-induced vulnerabilities in the forest management regime in our study area (i.e., the Nadina Forest District, including the Morice and Lakes Timber Supply Areas) and supports re-evaluation and revision of existing plans and practices (proactive adaptation). It lays the groundwork for structural change (e.g., a move towards adaptive management) by synthesizing current knowledge and uncertainty, and by identifying influential forces working at multiple scales within the forest system. This project also supports development of adaptation strategies by forest-dependent communities.

The project began with four objectives:

Management Unit Vulnerability Assessment - assess vulnerability of existing forest management regimes (i.e., objectives and strategies for selected ecosystem services) to climate change in two representative local resource management units;
Management Unit Adaptation Policy – use stakeholder workshops to develop local adaptation policy considering a range of climate change scenario narratives (based on vulnerability assessment);
Multi-scale Vulnerability Assessment Framework - develop a framework to link multiple disciplines and to link local, regional, provincial and national climate change adaptation policy;
Livelihood Assessment - apply livelihood methods to evaluate linkages among people, resources, the environment and the changing climate.