Year 3 - Assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change from the tree- to stand- to landscape-level
Project Reference Number: 2009-08
Project Status: Complete
Led by: Craig Nitschke, PhD, Bulkley Valley Research Centre and UBC
Funder: Forest Investment Account - Forest Science Program
Climate change directly or indirectly threatens the integrity of ecosystems. Functional and healthy ecosystems provide the necessary foundation for sustainable forest management. This project investigates the vulnerability of ecosystems in the Sub Boreal Spruce zone around Smithers, BC to climate change through multi-scale modelling. The vulnerability of species in their regeneration niche is being modelled to determine the resilience of species to predicted climate change. Changes in resilience are being used to investigate the impacts on stand dynamics and disturbance.
1: To gain an understanding of the impacts climate change will have on ecological resilience and stand dynamics in the Sub Boreal Spruce (SBS) zone;
2: To further develop TACA and expand the use of SORTIE-ND; and,
3: To develop a meta-model framework that allows for a cost-effective and reliable method for evaluating stand and landscape-level vulnerability to climate change that can be used in other parts of British Columbia and elsewhere.
Current Year Objectives (2009-2010):
1: To create SORTIE-TACA database for the landscape-level model of Mathey et al (2008);
2: To develop the disturbance parameters for fire, MPB, and Dothistroma for use in landscape-level model;
3: Model landscape-level response of ecosystems to climate-driven changes in disturbance regimes
4: Assess alternative management strategies for managing the SBS study area under climate change
5: To summarise the impact climate change in the SBS from the species- to the stand- to the landscape-level.
6: Recommend policy and management actions for fostering ecological resilience in the SBS zone.