Prediction of streamflow and associated sediment fluxes in the Kiskatinaw River Basin in response to spring snowmelt
Project Reference Number: 2016-19
Project Status: Multi-year/Continuing
Led by: Dr. Stephen Déry, BSc, MSc, PhD Atmospheric Science, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC
Chelsea Mottishaw, Richard Kabzems, Vanessa Foord and John Rex.
Funder: City of Dawson Creek, BC
There are three primary goals for this research in the Kiskatinaw River Basin (KRB): prediction of the timing and volume of spring runoff in the KRB based on snow surveys and other data available within the basin; prediction of periods when sediment concentrations are too high for the City of Dawson Creek to withdrawal water; and exploration of the changes in the hydrologic regime in response to variations in climate. Predictions of the timing and volume of spring flows will be explored using the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM). This model uses a melt index and snow covered area, in addition to precipitation data to model melt with time, and superimposes that melt onto antecedent discharge to make predictions of stream flow based on temperature and precipitation forecasts. Using logistic regression techniques it should be possible to make predictions of sediment concentration exceedance levels in the Arras weir, where the City of Dawson Creek withdrawals water for municipal use. The model is also capable of using temperature and precipitation data from climate simulations to model changes in snow melt characteristics in response to variations in climate.
