Bulkley Valley Research Centre - Science in the Public Interest

Year 3 - Evaluation of the Complex Stand Simulation Model SORTIE-ND for Sub-Boreal Forests of Northern BC

Project Reference Number: 2009-11

Project Status: Complete

Led by: Dave Coates, PhD, Research Silviculturist, Ministry of Forests and Range, Smithers

Funder: Forest Investment Account - Forest Science Program

Project Proposal

Forest managers in northern British Columbia require models that accurately predict timber yield of complex, managed and unmanaged stands (e.g., mountain pine beetle (MPB) damaged stands and mixedwood strategies in boreal forests). This proposal addresses the need for evaluation of SORTIE-ND, a spatially-explicit forest dynamics model, in sub-boreal forests and assessment of the model as a timber analysis management tool especially for stands impacted by the MPB.

Long Term Objectives:
(1) To compare model predictions to independent observations of growth from permanent sample plots or other sources of long-term data. This will provide information on ranges of accuracy and precision of stand level predictions.
(2) To provide users with information on the model performance and model developers with knowledge on where to concentrate further model development.
(3) To have SORTIE-ND accepted as a model that can be used for planning silvicultural treatments including their impacts on Timber Supply Review. The emphasis will be using the model in complex structured stands resulting from the MPB epidemic, especially for prediction of mid-term timber supply opportunities.
(4) To calibrate SORTIE-ND, if necessary, for use in the timber supply analysis.

Current Year Objectives:
(1) Determine availability and accumulate independent datasets that can be used to compare with model predictions.
(2) Compare model simulation results to independent datasets and determine need for calibration.
(3) Using results from the sensitivity analysis select behaviours that most influence model results.
(4) Calibrate different behaviours and determine model parameters that result in close alignment with independent datasets.

For more information go to Year 1 - Evaluation of the Complex Stand Simulation Model SORTIE-ND for Sub-Boreal Forests of Northern BC

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