Bulkley Valley Research Centre - Science in the Public Interest

Year 2 - Evaluation of the Complex Stand Simulation Model SORTIE-ND for Sub-Boreal Forests of Northern BC

Project Reference Number: 2008-11

Project Status: Complete

Led by: Dave Coates, PhD, Research Silviculturist, Ministry of Forests and Range, Smithers

Funder: Forest Investment Account - Forest Science Program

Forest managers in northern British Columbia require models that accurately predict timber yield of complex, managed and unmanaged stands (e.g., mountain pine beetle (MPB) damaged stands and mixedwood strategies in boreal forests). This proposal addresses the need for evaluation of SORTIE-ND, a spatially-explicit forest dynamics model, in sub-boreal forests and assessment of the model as a timber analysis management tool especially for stands impacted by the MPB.

Current Year Objectives for the sub-boreal spruce zone:

• To evaluate SORTIE-ND in terms of its logic and conceptual structure.
• To undertake a sensitivity analysis of the model, specific to the parameterization of the model for sub-boreal spruce forests, to provide information on the model’s sensitivity to uncertainty about the parameter estimates and to indicate the parameters with greatest influence on predictions.
• To test the influence of varying levels of model starting condition detail (e.g., tree lists with increasing detail) on model prediction outcomes.
• Determine availability and accumulate independent datasets that can be used to compare with model predictions.

For more information go to Year 1 - Evaluation of the Complex Stand Simulation Model SORTIE-ND for Sub-Boreal Forests of Northern BC

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